Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Latest GEA-ISA presidential poll: Peña Nieto leads Vázquez Mota by 13%; López Obrador collapsing; undecideds soaring
A GEA-ISA poll reported Feb. 29 (see below) carried good (and perhaps surprising) news for the National Action Party (PAN). Josefina Vázquez Mota was within seven percentage points of the front runner, PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto. But tonight that poll looks to have been a fluke, because the latest numbers show Peña Nieto leading Vázquez Mota by 13%. Far back in third place -- with less than half of the support enjoyed by PRI -- is PRD nominee Andrés Manuel López Obrador, with 15%. That's the worst showing he's made in any poll to date, whether Mitofsky or GEA-ISA, and suggests a campaign that's not just failing to climb, but one about to go into a serious stall as well. The latest numbers:
Self-reported undecided voters continue to rise, which might seem counter-intuitive since all three candidates, at least unofficially, have been stumping hard for many weeks. The formal campaign doesn't open until March 30, and according to this poll 30% or more of the probable voters questioned haven't made up their minds. A few days ago I opined that those undecideds just might be gravitating towards the foundering Manuel López Obrador (http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/03/latest-poll-results-could-be-but-blip.html), but this GEA-ISA poll surely doesn't suggest that. The candidates probably have it right when they say the only poll that counts is the one which will be taken on Sunday, July 1.
Note: Today's results are much more in line with several recent Consulta Mitofsky polls, such as last week's which showed EPN with 14 points over JVM. Allowing for a margin of error, a 12-15% difference is probably the truth of the matter at this stage.
Other interesting points: Vázquez Mota received a 35% favorable rating from GEA-ISA poll participants, Peña Nieto 32% and López Obrador 3%. Only 40% of those questioned knew the exact date of the election. Many voters still cannot identify all the major candidates. Sounds like the United States . . .
Consulta Mitofsky Mar. 13 presidential preference poll: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/03/mitofsky-poll-pena-nieto-14-points-up.html.
at 1:46 AM