Monday, January 9, 2012

PRI and Peña Nieto may be unstoppable, latest presidential preference poll shows

A presidential preference poll taken last week and reported this evening by CNN suggests that Mexico's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and its 2012 nominee Enrique Peña Nieto enjoy an overwhelming lead at this stage of the pre-campaign. The formal campaign opens March 30, and Mexican voters will elect their next president July 1.

Peña Nieto has 94% name recognition and a 78% approval rating says Parametría, a private Mexican polling company. When asked which party they would likely vote for, 49% of respondents selected PRI (Peña Nieto), 28% chose PAN (its nominee will be selected Feb. 5), and 23% picked PRD (Manuel Andres López Obrador), which is usually referred to as the "far left" option. The survey was conducted January 2-6.

In what will be dispiriting news for López Obrador, the poll showed that although he too has wide-spread name recognition -- 95% -- it's not the type a candidate wants: 45% of survey respondents viewed him negatively.

Among the three National Action Party (PAN) candidates competing to be party standard bearer, Santiago Creel enjoyed 77% name recognition, Josefina Vázquez Mota had 74% and Ernesto Cordero was far back in third place, with only 58% recognition. Cordero and Creel were viewed negatively by 35% and 33% of poll respondents, while Vázquez Mota was reviewed unfavorably by 21% of those surveyed.

True, much can happen between now and July 1, but it's little wonder that Peña Nieto was openly boasting of victory "by a wide margin" last week.

Formal campaign yet to begin, but candidates are already clobbering each other: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/01/news-clips-mexican-election-2012-notes.html.
Will Peña Nieto's flubs catch up with him?: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2011/12/squabble-over-candidates-literary-gaff.html.
PRI's "Great Hope": http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2011/12/pris-great-hope-enrique-pena-nieto.html.

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